Midterm Elections 2006  |  National impact and perspective

Campaign spending to set another record this year

By CHUCK RAASCH, GNS Political Writer

WASHINGTON - A record $2.6 billion for a nonpresidential election will be spent on political campaigns this year, the Center for Responsive Politics predicted Tuesday.

The nonpartisan campaign watchdog group's Sheila Krumholz said that even with restrictions on unlimited "soft money" donations that took effect after the 2002 elections, spending in this election will be up about 18 percent from the $2.2 billion spent four years ago. Krumholz said that political action committees (PACs) are stepping into the soft-money void, and predicted PACS will spend a record $1 billion in the '06 cycle. About 87 percent will go to incumbents, the highest percentage since 1990, according to the CRP.

"PACs are not generally the ones leading the charge in taking risks and throwing their money behind challengers," Krumholz said. "And so the growth of PAC spending and their importance this cycle is certainly going to play a part (in) incumbent protection."

Meanwhile, spending by "527" committees, the non-profit groups that helped fuel a rise in political spending in the late 1990s and early 2000s, has reached $300 million so far. That's about half of what they raised in 2004, according to the CRP. The 527s "have been focusing on the states, races for governor, state legislature, and ballot initiatives," said Krumholz, the CRP's acting director.

The CRP says that by mid-October, the average House candidate had raised about $760,000 and the average Senate candidate about $5.8 million, although those numbers distort the power of incumbency.

Incumbents have out-raised challengers by about 7-to-2 in the House and 4-to-1 in the Senate, according to the CRP. Republicans will have a slight overall advantage, with about $1.4 billion going to GOP candidates, committees and conservative advocacy groups, while $1.2 billion will go to Democratic candidates and allies, the CRP predicted.

The overall record for campaign spending of $4.2 billion was set in the 2004 elections, which included a heavily contested Democratic presidential primary and general election campaign. The CRP's $2.6 billion projection for this year also includes money raised and spent by political parties, PACs and issue-advocacy groups.

Other trends noted by the CRP:

• Active "leadership PACs" - fundraising committees controlled by members of Congress to help other candidates - now number 285. That's up 150 percent from 1998. Republican leadership PACs have more than doubled their giving from 2002, to over $22 million so far, the CRP analysis shows. Meanwhile, Democratic leadership PACs have raised $8.7 million, less than a third more than what they collected in 2002.

• The biggest industry and sector givers include law, lobbying, real estate, securities and investment, and retirees.

• About 603,000 of the largest individual donors - those who have given at least $200 - have forked over about $1 billion so far.

If Democrats take over the House or Senate, Krumholz predicts PAC giving will change.

"Soon after Election Day you can bet they will start writing checks to make friends with the incoming freshmen," Krumholz said.

Contact Chuck Raasch at craasch@gns.gannett.com

On the Web:

www.crp.org, Center for Responsive Politics

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Originally published October 24. 2006 5:58PM

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